Early polling is not very predictive.
Trump has the worst favorability rating within his own party of any Republican candidate except for Obama-hugger Chris Christie, according to new polling of key swing states by Quinnipiac University.
Where do the extra 17 points come from?
Asked by Savannah whether he's now "worried" about Trump's candidacy, Obama replied, "I've seen all kinds of crazy stuff happen.".Hes confident, however, that any such splintering will be minimal.But its not enough to win in the later states where the bulk of the delegates are at stake.Most states have winner-take-all rules that assigns electors based on who wins their popular election; Maine and Nebraska allocate theirs based on proportional representation.Endorsements matter not only because they point to who insiders think will win, but also because the people who make endorsements other elected officials can influence the outcome of the race by strengthening a candidates local ground game, promoting the candidate to fellow party leaders.He picked up support from 52 of GOP primary voters in New York in a recent Monmouth University poll well ahead of John Kasich at 25 and Ted Cruz.But more-knowledgable people think he wont.A: Do you know anyone who is undecided about Donald Trump?
Theyll look at the other side and say, God I hate.
Political forecaster Larry Sabato, director of the nonpartisan Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, puts it this way on his Crystal Ball blog : We are going to cling to one central fact about presidential elections: The only thing that matters is accumulating a majority.
Whats more, his numbers in individual state polls in Iowa (22) and New Hampshire (18) are currently lower than his national numbers.
Trump looks more like Pat Buchanan a well-known, polarizing figure whose passionate backing in one wing of the GOP (the anti-immigrant wing, incidentally) failed to attract mainstream voters, much less establishment support.
Presidential politics 101, the electoral college isnt a placeits a process, and a complicated one.
I would like to have the election tomorrow I dont want to wait.
Obama will address the Democratic National Convention Wednesday evening.And Giuliani, despite claiming the mantle of Americas Mayor, never had Trumps star power.Well for one thing, he doesn't seem to have any plans or policies or proposals or specific solutions, he said.He said that applies to some of the personal attacks hes received from Trump, who helped fuel the birther movement against Obama.There are other candidates who have been independently wealthy and able to self-finance."We're going to get every delegate.You can have someone elected with well under 50 of the vote if the electorate is fractured enough, Sabato explains.Theyre still waitingthe New York real estate developer and reality TV star has surpassed everyones expectations, except perhaps his own, and is now poised to win the Republican nomination.And by definition, then, the way we solve problems is by everybody participating and arguing and occasionally having to compromise.(Neither candidate went on to win the nomination.) Presidential races do shape up after voting begins, as candidates drop out oopsy daisy promo code and voters shift allegiances or form them for the first time.
In short, unless something big changes, a Trump presidency is very unlikely.